Friday, 16 April 2010

The US economy gains momentum

US share prices continued to rise as investors became more confident in the strength and sustainability of the recovery of the world’s largest economy. By the end of the first quarter of 2010, the S&P 500 index had registered gains in two months out of the three, only posting a decline during January.

Consumer spending has strengthened while inflation has remained relatively benign while the rate of inflation remained unchanged during February, rising by 2.1%, year on year. Investors were reassured during the month by the news of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain the country’s interest rates at zero to 0.25% in order to support the budding economic recovery.

Shares in General Electric rose after the company announced it hoped to restore dividend payouts in future. Meanwhile, third-quarter profits at FedEx more than doubled, year on year, as economic recovery led to a rise in shipments in Europe and Asia.

Elsewhere, following a protracted dispute between Google and the Chinese government about censorship within China, the world’s leading search engine chose to redirect mainline users in China to a Hong Kong website without filters. The move was applauded by anti-censorship campaigners but is likely to harm Google’s ability to develop within one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.

Index providers Standard & Poor’s reported that, of the 7,000 companies that report dividend information to it, only 48 cut their dividends during the first three months of 2010, compared with a record 367 during the first quarter of 2009. Indeed, Starbucks, the world’s leading coffee-shop operator, announced its first-ever dividend payout to shareholders since the company was floated on the stockmarket in 1992.

Despite unusually severe winter weather during February, retail sales registered an unexpected increase, rising by 0.3%, month on month. However, the heavy snowfalls hampered housing starts, which fell during the month.

Consumer sentiment remained anaemic and the rate of unemployment held steady at 9.7% during February. Meanwhile, the price of goods imported into the US fell more steeply than expected, suggesting overseas companies are wary of attempting to raise prices as the US economy continues its revival, for fear of derailing demand.

During the month, the US House of Representatives narrowly passed President Obama’s controversial healthcare reforms, which will lead to more than 30 million uninsured Americans being covered by health insurance. It is planned that the new measures will be financed primarily by new taxes.
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FTSE 100 continues to rally

One year after the UK stockmarket hit its recent bottom, the FTSE 100 index has risen by more than 60% from its lows of March 2009. This strong recovery triggered renewed speculation that the benchmark index might be within credible distance of the psychologically important 6,000-point level. During the course of March, the Footsie reached its highest level since June 2008.

HSBC reported full-year profits that were hit by higher costs resulting from bad loans. The subject of pay and bonuses within the financial sector remains both sensitive and highly controversial – nevertheless, HSBC put aside 25% of the revenue generated by its investment-banking arm to pay employees within the division.

For its part, Royal Bank of Scotland reported its pension deficit rose to £2.91bn last year. The bank admitted this deficit might continue to increase and also warned that this might “have a negative impact on the group’s capital position … or result in a loss of value in its securities”.

Lloyds Banking Group announced its management expects the company to return to profit this year, as the impact from bad loans appears to be less severe than previously thought. Meanwhile, insurers Legal & General announced a return to profit for 2009, despite experiencing lower sales in “difficult” markets, and raised its dividend payout by 33%.

Department-store operator Debenhams announced a rise in first-half sales and profits during the month. Earnings were boosted by the company’s decision to increase the amount of selling space for its own-brand ranges. Elsewhere bicycle and car equipment retailer Halfords expects full-year earnings to beat consensus forecasts, driven by effective cost control. However, floor-covering retailer Carpetright warned profits are likely to be below consensus expectations.

In the energy sector, full-year 2009 profits rose at oil exploration & extraction company Cairn Energy to $53m (£34.45m), compared with $11m in 2008. Elsewhere, Weir Group, which manufactures pumps for the mining sector, announced better-than-expected profits. The company expects demand for its products to rise this year and increased its dividend by 14%.
Internet gaming company 888 Holdings announced a decline in full-year profits, highlighting the difficult economic environment and the effects of foreign exchange as reasons for the drop. Towards the end of the month, rail support services company Jarvis announced it was being put into administration, citing difficult trading conditions and a substantial drop in the volume of rail and plant work.

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Friday, 9 April 2010

Demand for corporate bonds falls

According to the Investment Management Association (IMA), net retail sales in the UK experienced their best-ever January . However, sterling corporate bond funds proved to be the least popular sector during the month, despite having headed the IMA’s sales charts for the first eight months of 2009.

During January, the sterling corporate bond sector experienced outflows of £228m. Overall, bonds accounted for only 17% of net retail sales during the month although they were the highest-selling asset class within the institutional sector.

While demand for bonds has waned somewhat, market watchers still see good value in the UK corporate bond sector – although many experts advocate careful issuer selection. Low interest rates and expectations of relatively subdued inflation should provide a supportive environment for bond markets in general. Meanwhile, amid growing evidence that the economic recovery is gathering pace, high-yield bond issuance appears to have picked up, indicating that investors are becoming more sanguine about the economic recovery and are therefore more willing to take on risk.

In his last Budget before the General Election, Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling confirmed his previous forecast for UK economic growth of 1% to 1.5% in 2010, but reduced his previous forecast for 2011 to 3% to 3.5%, bringing his predictions for 2011 in line with those of the Bank of England.

The Chancellor expects the budget deficit to decline from 11.8% of GDP to 4% by April 2015, but plans to postpone spending cuts until 2011 in order to allow the economy time to recover. Meanwhile, political uncertainty is weighing on the pound amid growing fears of a hung parliament after the General Election. Such an outcome would be likely to reduce the chance of a swift and decisive resolution to the budget deficit.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) warned that the UK’s economic recovery is likely to be “slow and sluggish” during 2010, hampered by consumers’ ongoing desire to save rather than spend. Overall, the organisation expects the UK to register economic growth of 1% in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011, but warned of the “lack of a clear driver for growth”.
According to the CBI, UK factory orders continued to recover, boosted by a rise in export orders. It foresees UK export orders “”steadily improving as global demand is starting to recover”, but warned that domestic demand remains very weak, which might hamper growth in manufacturing output.
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Emerging markets bounce back

The Global Emerging Markets sector benefited from investors returning to riskier assets in March. Having languished at the bottom of the table for much of early 2010, the average fund is now up 9.35% for the year to date.

Eastern Europe bounced back from a difficult month in February, as the Greek situation started to resolve itself. The MSCI Emerging Markets Europe index was up 9.67% for the month with a particularly strong performance from the Turkish, Polish and Hungarian markets. The Czech Republic remained weak and rose just 1.11% over the month.

For their part, the Russian markets benefited from a strong tick-up in the oil price towards the end of the month with the MSCI Russia index rising 8.56%. Andrei Klepach, the country’s deputy minister for economic development, said the Russian economy may grow faster than official estimates in 2010 and added that the current predictions of 3% to 3.5% were ‘conservative’ and real growth was likely to be nearer 4% to 4.5%.

In East Asia, a World Bank report said output, exports and employment had returned to pre-crisis levels and, again, China has been the engine of growth. Real GDP in developing East Asia is predicted to rise 8.7% in 2010, from 7% in 2009. The report said stimulus measures were also being withdrawn in the region, but private consumption had not yet emerged to take the strain.

The FTSE Xinhua index rose 3.8% over the month – significantly behind the developed market indices. The Hang Seng’s rise was also muted, at just 1.9%, while the index of Chinese listed shares – the Shanghai 180 – rose 2.5%.

Brazil’s Bovespa index resumed its strong run, rising 5.8% over the month. The country’s economy grew 2% in the last quarter, showing its growth rate is accelerating. IMG, one of the world’s largest sports and entertainment marketing groups, endorsed Brazil’s growth potential by announcing a joint venture with Globo, the country’s largest television network. The group has already made a successful push into India and is planning a China venture as well.

India’s S&P/CNX 500 index rose 3.4% over the month while Standard & Poor’s lifted its negative outlook on the country’s sovereign credit rating. The rating agency said it was encouraged by a promise from Pranab Mukherjee, India’s finance minister, that the central and state government deficit would fall from 9.8% of GDP for the year to March 2010 to 8.3% next year and 5.4% by 2015. The group also revised its prediction for India’s 2010 GDP growth rate up to 8%.

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UK companies beating earnings expectations

Higher-yielding stocks continued to underperform in March, in spite of a much improved outlook for dividends. The FTSE 350 Higher Yield index returned less than half of its lower yield counterpart over the month as markets saw another jump up.

The higher yield index rose 3.7%, while the lower yield index rose 8.6%. The overall yield on the FTSE 100 fell from 3.48% to 3.27% as share prices rose.However, with more companies beating earnings expectations, the outlook for dividends continued to improve and indeed data group Markit now predicts a rise in dividends of 18% in 2010. The group based its prediction on the 161 FTSE 350 companies that have already reported earnings of which 47% have beaten forecasts while only 27% have missed. That said, it is some of the big dividend names that have missed – most notably GlaxoSmithKline.

There may be some small distortion in the figures as a number of companies have rushed to pay dividends before the introduction of the 50% tax rate. Others have issued special or quarterly dividends. Even so, there has been plenty of good corporate news for dividend seekers. HSBC issued an upbeat statement on the outlook for L&G’s dividend, for example, saying the insurer is likely to generate a cash surplus of £1bn over the next few years, some of which will find its way into higher payouts for shareholders.

Elsewhere, Kingfisher raised its dividend for the first time in five years as B&Q posted better than expected like-for-like sales. Equally, AG Barr raised its full-year dividend as Irn Bru sales benefited from the wider improvement in the economy whil Kazakhmys reinstated its dividends as the copper price continued to perform well. IMI also raised its dividend on the back of improved sales while Man Group saw funds under management dip 7%, but still maintained its dividend.

Shell was less positive, saying that even though production was likely to increase faster than expected over the next three years, dividends would remain at their current level. It also changed its dividend policy from ‘increasing in line with inflation’ to ‘calculating payments in line with the view of underlying earnings and cash flow’.

The UK Equity Income sector is still trailing over the year to date, with the average fund currently up 5.38% for the year. This compares to a return from the UK All Companies sector of 6.84% although UK Equity Income & Growth is the worst performer, delivering just 4.92%.

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Strong Rally in Japanese market

Japan retained its place at the top of the IMA sector table this month, with funds now up by an average of 15.4% for the year to date. Much of this performance has come from the depreciation of the pound versus the yen, but the stockmarket has performed strongly too.

The Nikkei was the best-performing developed market over the month – rising 9.5%, ahead of the FTSE 100, which rose 6.1%, the S&P 500, up 5.8%, and the FTSE Eurofirst index, up 7.2%. Japan fund managers are still suggesting stocks in the region are fairly priced and that many companies are likely to beat earnings expectations.

As ever with Japan, the economic picture was mixed. Fourth-quarter GDP numbers were revised down from 4.6% to 3.8% as private sector inventories proved weaker than expected. However, the government suggested a double-dip recession had become less likely. Analysts in the region backed that view and retained some optimism on the outlook for the Japanese economy.

This optimism was premised on a number of factors, the first being a muted rise in consumer spending – just 0.7% – in the final quarter of the year, which suggested the recovery may be broadening out from purely government-led stimulus packages. Equally, unemployment fell below 5% for the first time in a year in February. A recovery in exports has been key to improving employment prospects.

Debt remains a worry and there is no shortage of analysts suggesting Japan will be another ‘next Greece’. Investors are still buying Japanese government bonds, even with coupons as low as 1.4%, and the most recent government bond issue went without a hitch. With government bond issues exceeding tax revenues in 2009, the sustainability of the situation looks fragile but, for the time being, Japan ticks on.

That said, industrial production figures slipped from January to February, their first fall in a year. Admittedly, they were still up 31.3% on last year, but it did lead some analysts to question whether government confidence in an unbroken recovery may be misplaced. Deflation persists and prices were down a further 1.2% in February.

It is the strength of the corporate sector, however, that is giving fund managers cause for optimism. With low debt, improving earnings and their strong leverage towards the global economic recovery, Japanese companies look in rude health relative to many of their global peers. Valuations are low compared to their 20-year average but the question remains whether they can transcend Japan’s still parlous economic conditions.

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Euro-zone benefiting from falling Euro

News from the eurozone continues to be dominated by the problems in Greece, with the end of the month seeing the grouping’s leaders agree a £20bn financial aid package for the country if it runs into difficulties with its debt repayments.

The euro fell sharply on rumours Greece had tried to renegotiate the terms of its bailout package – which its government vehemently denied – while the country is still struggling with social unrest.If nothing else, the problems are putting downward pressure on the euro, which has helped some parts of the eurozone’s economy. The currency has weakened around 10% against the dollar since the start of the year. The effect of the euro’s depreciation was most apparent in industrial production figures, which rose 1.7% in January – much more than expected. The growth came from ‘durable’ consumer goods, such as cars, furniture and appliances, and raised hopes the weak GDP growth figures for the last quarter of 2010 might be revised up.

Confidence indicators improved although they were unevenly spread between countries. France and Greece saw confidence improve, while Greece, Spain and Portugal all continued to suffer. Germany had some more encouraging statistics after weak GDP data for the final quarter of 2009 as unemployment continued to fall – from 8.1% to 8% - in contrast with much of the rest of the eurozone.

The picture elsewhere was bleaker. Portugal saw its rating downgraded by Fitch on the back of its escalating debt while Ireland’s problems seem entrenched – the economy ticked down 2.3% in the last quarter. The country’s momentary lift out of recession proved short-lived as the rise in the previous quarter was also revised down.

Europe excluding UK funds have languished since the start of the year. The average fund has returned 4.36% to investors over the year to date, leaving it significantly behind the UK All Companies sector, where the average fund has delivered 6.84%.

The declining euro is likely to prove a headwind for UK investors. There is some support for the view that the euro is about to see a precipitous drop as currency markets wise up to the relative strength of individual global economies – particularly after a recent assessment by the OECD suggested the eurozone recovery is stalling while those of the UK and US are moving ahead.

European markets did reasonably well during March. The FTSE Eurofirst index delivered 7.2% – about 1.1% ahead of the FTSE 100 and 1.4% ahead of the S&P 500. Germany’s Dax was the strongest of the individual markets, rising 8.9%, while France’s CAC 40 rose just 6.3%.

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